Taliban & Indian Diplomacy
The Taliban's blisteringly fast takeover of Afghanistan has stunned security and diplomacy experts worldwide. Days after the fall of Kabul, nations are hurriedly evacuating their diplomats and citizens, leaving behind two decades of work and investments.The Taliban's rout is likely to cause a significant shift in the geopolitics of South Asia, and it could be particularly testing for India, given the country's historically tense relations and border disputes with Pakistan and China - both are expected to play a crucial role in Afghanistan's future.Pakistan shares a porous border with Afghanistan and has long been an active player in its northern neighbour's affairs. Now China is showing an interest in playing a bigger role in Afghanistan. Foreign minister Wang Yi's meeting with senior Taliban leaders last month shows Beijing doesn't want to be a silent player anymore.
This potential geopolitical realignment could "change things upside down", said Gautam Mukhopadhaya, India's former ambassador to Afghanistan and Syria.
Afghanistan was a loose alliance between the democratic government in Kabul, the West and other democracies like India. But the world is likely to see Pakistan, Russia, Iran and China coming together to play the next chapter of the Great Game.Some in India see this as a loss for Delhi and a big win for Pakistan. But former Indian diplomat Jitendra Nath Misra said that was too simplistic a view, because the Pahstun-led Taliban has never recognised the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, creating discomfort for Islamabad."Pakistan would want to get the Taliban to accept the border and this will be a top priority," he said.
But it's also true that the Taliban's rule in Afghanistan gives Pakistan strategic depth against India. Islamabad has gotten what it always wanted, said Michael Kugelman, deputy director of the Wilson Center think-tank in Washington - a government in Afghanistan that it can easily influence.
"Pakistani officials may show this off as India's loss, but then there are bigger strategic goals for Pakistan," Mr Kugelman said. "It really sees itself as the biggest regional winner at the moment."
Experts say Pakistan was not happy with the growing ties between the US and India, or former Afghan president Ashraf Ghani's lukewarm relations with Islamabad. The country's struggling economy also made it feel vulnerable.Now Islamabad has reasons to believe that it's the winner because its "all-weather" friendship with China will be useful in Afghanistan. Moreover, Beijing is not shy of showing its might anymore. "China can and will play the game now according to its own rules," Mr Misra said.
China also has economic interests in Afghanistan, which can help fulfil its ever-growing need for minerals, but more importantly it can pressure the Taliban to ban the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), which it blames for unrest in its Muslim-dominated Xinjian province, to operate on Afghan soil.
Mr Mukhopadhaya said China and Pakistan "would ride piggyback on each other in Afghanistan". But he added that Beijing should be cautious and not fall into any trap like other world powers in the past.
Russia and Iran also seem to be on the same trajectory - neither has evacuated its embassy, and both nations' diplomats are still working in Kabul.
what can India do now ? The country was never as big a player in Afghanistan as Pakistan, the US or Russia. But Delhi has always been involved in promoting security and cultural ties. Thousands of Afghans are in India for education, work or medical treatment.Mr Misra says there are no good options for Delhi. "There are bad and then there are worse options," he said.The biggest challenge India will face is whether to recognise the Taliban government or not. The decision will get tough, especially if Moscow and Beijing decide to acknowledge the Taliban government in some form. Experts say Islamabad is likely to officially accept the Taliban government, as it did in 1999.
India's best option at the moment seems to keep a channel of communication open with the Taliban. But it will be an uneasy relationship, considering the history between the Taliban and Delhi. The Taliban gave a safe passage to the hijackers of an Indian Airlines plane in 1999 - an incident that remains etched in the collective memory of Indians. And Delhi has always kept close ties with the Northern Alliance - a group of Afghan warlords that fought the Taliban between 1996 and 1999.
With the Taliban in the heart of Kabul, India may now wish to put the past to one side in order to safeguard its own interests, and to ensure the region remains stable. There are concerns that militant groups like the Jaish-e-Mohammad Lashkar-e-Taiba will be galvanised by the Taliban's success and plan and execute attacks against India.
Amalendu Misra, a professor of politics at Lancaster University and the author of a book on Afghanistan, says it's a diplomatic tightrope India will have to walk.And it may need a strategy to ensure that the contested region of Kashmir doesn't become the next rallying point for the mujahideen.
While experts say India needs to keep talking to the Taliban, it will have to decide how much it may want to get involved in any anti-Taliban groupings. The West is likely to form a united front to keep pressure on the Taliban. British PM Boris Johnson has already called for a joint response to the Taliban government.
Then there are other possibilities, like the Northern Alliance regrouping later, or Afghanistan becoming another place for a fight for supremacy between the US-led West and a joint group of China, Russia and Pakistan.So there are no easy options for India, but its decisions will have consequences on regional peace and global geopolitics.[1]
CHINA,PAKISTAN and RUSSIA'S role in formation of new government:-
As the Taliban takes over in the strategic, landlocked nation, the new Great Game has Pakistan in control, with its ally China looking to cement its grip on the region.Pakistan has deep ties with the Taliban and has been accused of supporting the Islamist group as it battled the U.S.-backed government in Kabul - charges denied by Islamabad. When the Taliban captured Kabul last week, Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan said Afghans had broken the "shackles of slavery".As the Taliban holds discussions to decide on its government model, media reports have said some Pakistani officials are involved.
A Foreign Office spokesperson in Islamabad said Pakistan wanted an inclusive political settlement in Afghanistan that ensured peace and stability in the region but added the "key role remains with the Afghans".China, with no previous involvement in Afghanistan but a strong alliance with Pakistan, has held out an olive branch to the Taliban, enticed by the country's mineral wealth, including its large reserves of lithium, a key component for electric vehicles. China is also looking at the prospect of extra security for its narrow land route through the Karakoram mountains into Pakistan.
And then there is India - Pakistan's old enemy, which has been locked in a military standoff with China along their disputed border for more than a year. India was a key supporter of the ousted regime in Kabul and as both Pakistan and China become key players in a Taliban-ruled Afghanistan, New Delhi's nervousness in increasing.China however says its main aim in reaching out to the Taliban is to protect its western Xinjiang region from anti-Beijing East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) militants, who could seek sanctuary within Afghanistan."While Pakistan might be thinking of leveraging on Afghanistan against India, this is not necessarily the case for China," said Zhang Li, a professor of South Asian studies at Sichuan University.
"China's primary concern now is for the Taliban to ... build an inclusive and moderate regime so that terrorism would not spill over to Xinjiang and the region. Any other calculus further to that remains to be seen."
The U.S. government says ETIM no longer exists as a formal organization and is instead a broad label China uses to oppress a variety of Muslim ethnic groups, including Uyghurs, in its Xinjiang region. China denies all accusations of abuse.China has dangled the prospect of providing the two things the Taliban needs to govern Afghanistan: diplomatic recognition and much-needed infrastructure and economic assistance, said Brahma Chellaney, professor of strategic studies at the Centre for Policy Research in New Delhi."An opportunistic China is certain to exploit the new opening to make strategic inroads into mineral-rich Afghanistan and deepen its penetration of Pakistan, Iran, and Central Asia," he said.
BITTER MEMORIES
There was much cheering in Pakistan over India's discomfiture at the turn of events, said Raza Ahmad Rumi, a political commentator, who teaches at Ithaca College in New York. The two countries have fought three wars since they became independent nations when the subcontinent was divided in 1947.
"The jubilation in Pakistan witnessed on social media and TV screens was largely linked to the undoing of Indian influence as conventional policy circles viewed (Afghan President Ashraf) Ghani's close links with India as a threat," Rumi said.India has bitter memories of the previous Taliban stint in power from 1996 to 2001 and the group's links to Pakistan.
An Indian Airlines plane was hijacked in 1999 and ultimately landed in Kandahar in southern Afghanistan. New Delhi freed three senior Pakistani militants in its jails in exchange for the return of the passengers and the Taliban allowed the hijackers and the released prisoners to go to Pakistan."Our position today is one of adjusting to reality. We have to play the long game in Afghanistan. We don't have a contiguous border but we have stakes there," said Jayant Prasad, a former Indian ambassador to Kabul.
Over the past year as the Taliban emerged as a dominant force and U.S.-brokered negotiations began in Doha, Indian diplomats had opened a line with the group, diplomatic sources in New Delhi said."We are talking to all stakeholders," one of them said, but did not want to get to the specifics of the discussions. There has been criticism at home that India put all its eggs in the basket of the Ghani government when the United States itself had begun talks with the Taliban, and that New Delhi left it too late.
'NOT A RE-RUN'
Still, India as a major economic player can be attractive to the Taliban, looking to avoid an over-dependence on China, the source said.India has development projects in every one of Afghanistan's 34 provinces, small and big, including the parliament building in Kabul that it built, which was over-run by gun-toting Taliban men after sweeping into the city last week.Myra MacDonald, author of three books on South Asia and a former Reuters journalist, said while the Taliban takeover was a setback for India, it was not game over for New Delhi.
"This is not a re-run of the past. Everyone is going to be much more careful this time about letting Islamist terrorism in Afghanistan explode as in the pre-9/11 days."
"Plus in relative terms, India is much more economically stronger than Pakistan this time around."A senior member of the Taliban has told Reuters that impoverished Afghanistan needs help from countries in the region, including Iran, as well as the United States and Russia.
"We expect them to help us, to support our people, especially the health sector and especially the business sector and mining sector," said Waheedullah Hashimi, who has access to the group's decision-making.[2]
source:[1]https://www.bbc.com/
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